The chances that the avian flu virus will mutate into a form that can be transmitted from human to human is high enough for the World Health Organization (WHO) to classify the present situation as a "pandemic alert." Should a pandemic break out it would likely do so in Asia. Therefore Japan needs to play an active role in preparing for such a possibility.

Two international meetings were recently held in Tokyo and Beijing on the issue of avian flu and a related flu pandemic. Twenty-three countries and six international organizations took part in the Japan-WHO joint meeting in Tokyo, with discussions focusing on an early response to the potential pandemic. The importance of early detection and reporting of the emergence of a new influenza was agreed upon and it was decided that each nation should develop its surveillance, epidemiological research and education capabilities.

More than 100 countries participated in the Beijing meeting to raise money to fight avian flu and to prepare for a possible pandemic. A total of $1.9 billion, including about $1 billion in grants, was offered in pledges over the next three years -- a third more than the $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion the World Bank estimates is needed. Nearly half of the money will go to Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Cambodia, where the H5N1 avian-flu virus has infected humans.