It was pretty likely that some deal would get struck at the World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial meeting that was held last week in Hong Kong. It was inevitable that any such accord would be the product of arduous last-minute negotiations. And it was certain that trade ministers would applaud the accord as a chance to keep trade talks going, while farmers and activists would denounce it as a "betrayal." The plain truth is the Doha Round of global trade talks is perilously close to collapse. The Hong Kong ministerial devised a formula that merely keeps talks going. Absent a revolutionary shift in thinking about access to agricultural markets, last week's deal will only postpone the inevitable failure.

The Doha Development Round of trade talks was launched four years ago amid pledges to focus on the needs of the world's poorest citizens. Previous trade negotiations had paid handsome dividends, but most of the rewards had gone to developed countries that profited most from market reform in and increased access for industrial goods and services. To correct that imbalance, negotiators agreed that these talks would concentrate on the concerns of developing nations.

In practical terms, that meant liberalization of agricultural markets in developed countries, where the most competitive exports of poorer nations would find ready customers. Yet, as Japanese know, agricultural interests are some of the most entrenched in national politics, making reform extremely difficult. That resistance has been the biggest obstacle to progress in the trade negotiations.