MANILA -- Some observers of Philippine affairs view political crises in this country as a permanent phenomenon. Just the other day, I joined a group of foreign correspondents for a meeting with a visiting American reporter who has covered the Philippines since the late '60s. While this journalist, who came out with a book titled "Philippines in Crisis," acknowledged the present political turmoil, he hastened to add it was much in line with what he had become accustomed to writing about for so many years.

While I am not an expert on the history of Philippine domestic politics, I agree that political stability has not been the rule but rather the exception since I moved to Manila in early 2002. Back then, President Gloria Arroyo had just replaced Joseph Estrada. At that time, many Filipinos expressed relief that Estrada, whom they perceived as corrupt, incompetent and an embarrassment, had been removed from office well ahead of the end of his constitutional term.

To understand the underlying factors of the crisis besetting the Arroyo presidency, one must consider the ramifications of the ouster of her predecessor. Estrada and his political allies have still not accepted the 2001 fait accompli and continue to see themselves as the legitimate rulers. Arguably, the best chance Estrada and his supporters had for revenge was the 2004 general elections, when the former president managed to persuade his friend, actor Fernando Poe Jr., to step into the political arena. Due to his unparalleled popularity, Poe's victory should have been a foregone conclusion. Had it not been for the presidential ambitions of an opposition senator who effectively split the anti-Arroyo vote, Arroyo wouldn't have won.