The topics of discussion at last weekend's meeting of finance heads from the Group of Seven were obvious: danger from rising oil prices, global imbalances and developing nations' debt. Yet the ministers failed to make headway on these issues. The global economy needs more than well-heeled cheerleaders.
In the statement released after the meeting, the ministers agreed that "global expansion has remained robust and that the outlook continues to point to solid growth for 2005." Indeed, last year the global economy grew 5.1 percent, one of the highest levels in years. Ill omens lurk, though: "Higher oil prices are a head wind, and the expansion is less balanced than before." As a result, growth this year is expected to be only 4.3 percent; higher oil prices are blamed for about one-third of the reduction. The ministers promised to take "vigorous" action to reduce "global imbalances and foster growth."
When it comes to oil prices, it is not clear what they can do. The cause of rising oil prices is not so much reduced supply as demand created by a booming global economy. The U.S. economy expanded 4.4 percent in 2004 and is expected to slow to a still respectable 3.6 percent in 2005. China continues its blistering growth; its economy grew 9.5 percent last year, and the IMF expects it to expand 8.5 percent in 2005, an increase of one percentage point over estimates of six months ago. China is the second-largest consumer of oil in the world (after the United States). Its demand for oil grew 15.6 percent last year, but the rate of increase is only expected to grow 10 percent in 2005.