The agenda for the current National People's Congress of China reportedly includes an antisecession bill for preventing the independence of Taiwan. The Chinese leadership wants to have the bill enacted by the end of the session on March 14. The contents of the draft legislation have not been made public, but according to reports in Hong Kong newspapers and other sources, it embodies Beijing's intention to resolve the Taiwan problem by "nonpeaceful means" in the event certain conditions arise. The conditions that are listed in the bill reportedly include a declaration of independence by Taipei, an outbreak of riots in Taiwan and military intervention by foreign forces.

Predictably, the reports have provoked strong reactions from pro-independence Taiwanese. In an interview with Kyodo News Agency late last month, Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian criticized such legislation, saying that "China is unilaterally trying to change the present situation of the Taiwan Strait by giving legal grounds to a military invasion of Taiwan." He went on to say that if the antisecession bill is forcefully enacted, "there will be calls in Taiwan for the enactment of a law against annexation by China or a referendum to gauge the popular will concerning the antisecession law."

If an exercise of Chinese military force became a reality, Japan as well could not write the matter off as a "fire on the other side" since such a development would directly impact its own security.