BRUSSELS -- Recent events in North Korea have been interpreted in various ways and, generally, the wish has been father to the thought. The truth is difficult to discern, but indications are that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has placed himself firmly behind a reform program that may finally bring the country in from the cold. The fact that Pyongyang is considering applying for observer status at the World Trade Organization supports this contention.

Monitoring North Korea, one of the world's least transparent regimes, is difficult. For example, no Party Congress has convened since 1980, and the last official plenary meeting of the Central Committee took place in 1993 with not a single new member co-opted since. Thus it is necessary to rely on rumors in the international media based on unnamed sources. Such information normally has a kernel of truth that can be extracted.

In 2004, there were suggestions that Kim's power was being challenged. In April, Jang Song Thaek, Kim's brother-in-law and the second-highest official in the North Korean power hierarchy, was reported to have been removed from his post. In May, there were reports in South Korea that the Ryong Chon explosion could have been an assassination attempt on Kim's life. Accompanying this account was the rumored arrest of 10 young North Korean pro-Chinese technocrats.