LONDON -- The U.S. government has named Iran and North Korea as rogue states. Iran is accused of seeking to develop nuclear weapons and breaching the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). North Korea may already have a few nuclear devices and has announced its withdrawal from the NPT. The two states are very different and should not be conflated into a single threat.
Recent talks between the Iranians and the Europeans in Vienna failed to reach agreement on the key question of uranium enrichment. The Iranians say the NPT guarantees them the right to enrich uranium. The Europeans want a complete suspension of uranium enrichment and have offered, in exchange, a trade deal and assurances that Iran will receive enriched-uranium supplies under supervision as well as transfers of nuclear technology, including a light-water reactor.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will soon produce another report on whether Iran is complying with IAEA safeguards. If the report is critical of Iran, as expected, the issue may be referred to the U.N. Security Council where the Americans are likely to press for sanctions against Iran. Still, it would be a mistake to conclude at this stage that negotiations are certain to fail.