SYDNEY -- The long reign of Prime Minister John Howard is coming to an end if the latest pre-election opinion polls are any guide. But who believes polls? Certainly nobody caught up in a new round of election frenzy suddenly sweeping Australia.

The campaigning nice guys are being trampled underfoot as a till-now boring national election campaign nosedives into its final, vicious weeks.

Not even the self-styled Canberra pundits venture to predict the balance of national politics for the three years after election day, October 9. New issues, some of them bizarre, have turned traditional campaigning on its head. Some observers even fear that the latest divisions could lead to a hung Parliament or at least to a divided Senate that could make sound government an impossible balancing act.

The rise of Mark Latham to the position of front-runner for prime ministership has caught all but his devoted Labor Party faithful off guard. The untried knockabout from the tough western Sydney suburbs suddenly presents himself as the replacement for earnest, conservative Howard from the business end of Sydney. It's a prospect that other countries, let alone Australia, will take some adjusting to.

All election bets are off since aggressive Latham beat Howard in a televised debate. Labor now has a narrow two-party preferred margin over the conservative coalition as Latham's personal appeal has risen and the coalition's primary support fallen.

The first Newspoll taken after the big debate saw support for the coalition dropping on primary votes and the Labor leader's support rising as preferred prime minister.

The coalition's primary vote dropped three percentage points to 43 percent and Labor's rose one to 41. But on second preferences -- and this election is all about how people cast their preferences -- Labor has an election-winning lead of 52.5 percent to the coalition's 47.5. This reverses the actual vote in the last, 2001 election of 51 to the government and 49 to Labor.

The Newspoll, widely respected within its limit, follows Latham's stunning promise to take millions of dollars of government funding away from rich private schools and give it to poor public schools. Robin Hood tactics always impress during campaigns and Howard has been quick to answer with his own goodies, though more along lines less sugary, such as national security.

The unswerving image of Howard in regional affairs, notably since he stood up for the independence of East Timor from Indonesia and for an Australian troop commitment in Iraq, stands him in good stead. His rating as the better prime minister fell in the Newspoll from 50 to 47, still ahead of Latham's rise from 33 to 37. Still, foreign policies can hardly be expected to swing elections.

Both leaders found that out as they stumped across the country in recent days. Howard was in northernmost Darwin to announce a $50 million grant for the local hospital's trauma center. That looked a nice deal. If ever another trauma like the East Timor evacuation happens again in South East Asia, Darwin hospital could again save many lives. But instead of thanks, Howard got a small boy in front of TV cameras demanding: "Why don't you put more money into schools?"

Not to be outdone on national security, Labor's would-be foreign minister Kim Beazley announced a $500 million pledge to double the Ready Reaction Force based in Townsville, North Queensland. (Townsville, like Darwin, is close-vote country.) Labor promises to review the government's $16 billion annual defense proposal.

Up in Darwin again -- candidates are candid about which seats to pork barrel -- Labor science spokesman Kim Carr says his government will set up a national center for excellence in pandemic and bio-terrorism containment. The center will work on techniques to contain terrorism threats.

Up jumps Howard, this time on a tourist island off Cairns, to pledge $100 million to protect the Great Barrier Reef, now threatened by pollution. Howard says the government remains committed to its Kyoto protocol obligations without signing the agreement.

Voters, slightly bemused by all this largess for worthy causes, have waited for a blowup to relieve the election tension. Suddenly it came. And from the predicted source, the volatile Latham.

Accused by a journalist that public reaction to Labor's complex tax reform policy was "a souffle that didn't rise," Latham snapped back: "Mate, if you don't get it, I assure you Australian families do."

Anger boiled over again in Darwin -- the tropical heat soured TV coverage there for both leaders -- when Latham was quizzed whether his 3-year-old son Oliver would go to a private or public school. He remained livid through the press conference and later demanded that the woman journalist be gagged by the Canberra Press Gallery. She remains ungagged. The impatient gallery gleefully awaits the next Latham blowup.

As the no-holds-barred campaign hots up, Howard's Liberal Party is far from immune to dirty tricks allegations. Tony Windsor, an independent parliamentarian who broke with the coalition, is making loud noises about being offered a diplomatic perk overseas in return for dropping out of politics. Everyone up the line to Howard is denying any such bribe. Windsor, meanwhile, is set for smooth re-election and could conceivably hold the balance of power in a tight election outcome.