Relations across the Taiwan Strait continue to deteriorate. The re-election of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has alarmed the mainland government, which is convinced Mr. Chen seeks Taiwan's independence. China has been sending signals that it is prepared to take military action if Taipei takes that fateful step. That does not mean war is imminent. But the military muscle-flexing does create opportunities for mischief, miscalculation and mistakes.

Since Mr. Chen was elected president four years ago, China has been worried that he will push the independence agenda. His behavior during his first term confirmed many of Beijing's worst suspicions. His re-election this year increased fears that the island would split from the mainland. Even before his inauguration, Beijing released a statement warning against any rash actions. Instead, Mr. Chen's inaugural address was moderate, more notable for what he promised not to do, than what he hinted might lie ahead. For that caution, credit consultations between Taipei and Washington, not Beijing's bluster. After the unprecedented verbal slap that U.S. President George W. Bush delivered to Mr. Chen in December, at a meeting with visiting Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, Taiwan and the U.S. have worked to ensure that both sides are comfortable with what the other is doing.

Despite U.S. reassurances that it wants neither side to unilaterally change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and the recent visit by national security adviser Condeleezza Rice, which stressed Washington's continued adherence to the "one China policy" and the important items on which the U.S. and China can cooperate, Beijing has not been mollified. Its rhetoric continues to escalate and Chinese has begun military exercises that are designed to send an unambiguous signal that China is prepared to take military action if needed.