In a stunning performance, Mr. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a political newcomer, is projected to come out on top in the first round of voting for the presidency of Indonesia. The former general will not cross the 50 percent threshold required to claim the office on the first round; instead, he looks set to face off against current President Megawati Sukarnoputri in a runoff to be held in September.

A victory in the second round is by no means guaranteed. Ms. Megawati has a powerful political machine that could compensate for her dwindling popularity. No matter who wins the ballot, the challenges the president will face are formidable. Patience is running short in Indonesia.

This election marks the first time that Indonesians have directly elected their president. In the past, Parliament chose the president. During the Suharto years, the assembly was a rubber stamp, returning the autocrat to office for more than three decades. Since his tenure ended, political deals have dominated decision making. Although Ms. Megawati was the most popular political leader when parliamentary elections were held in 1999 (her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, won a third of the seats in the ballot), Muslim leaders were uncomfortable with a woman president, and backroom deals ended up securing the appointment of Mr. Abdurrahman Wahid as president. Ms. Megawati, the vice president, succeeded him only after Mr. Wahid was removed from office two years later for erratic behavior.