KYOTO -- The outcome of the March 20 presidential election in Taiwan will have a profound impact on cross-strait relations. Much will depend, of course, on who wins. But equally important will be how Beijing responds. Will Beijing let the next Taiwan leader -- be it incumbent President Chen Shui-bian or challenger (and former Vice President) Lien Chan -- set the tone? Or will it be more pro-active and help set a positive agenda?
Beijing clearly has its favorite in this race, based more on its lingering distrust of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, than on expectations that pursuing its reunification goals will be any easier if the Kuomintang, or KMT, returns to power.
The reality is that no Taiwan leader will accept Beijing's "one country, two systems" formula or its definition of "one China" under Beijing's authority. But a few olive branches from the direction of Beijing could help set the direction of future cross-strait relations over the next four years, regardless of who wins.