The economic outlook is looking up. Most economists think the world's economy has bottomed out and is now poised for strong growth. The U.S. recovery and Chinese stability will be key factors in the near future, but longer-term growth depends on consumer confidence and a renewed commitment to trade liberalization. Neither can be taken for granted.

Economists forecast 4.5 percent global growth this year, a return to the rates seen at the end of the go-go 1990s. Japan is showing signs of some vitality, with expected growth of 2.7 percent for 2003, although that will fall to 2.1 percent in 2004. The European Union should make up for that: After posting anemic 0.5 percent growth this year, euro-zone economies should expand 1.8 percent in 2004.

The big boosts will come from a recovery in the United States and continued growth in China. U.S. officials now believe that they have weathered the worst of the recession and the economy is ready to surge. Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product should top 4 percent in 2004, after expanding 3.1 percent in 2003, 2.5 percent in 2002, and remaining flat in 2001. Those prospects could lead to the creation of as many as 1.5 million jobs, a continuing surge in consumer spending and President George W. Bush's re-election in November.