For those who argue that democracy is alien to Asian society and culture, 2004 will provide the litmus test. The year will be thick with elections, challenging both voters and political systems throughout the region. Every campaign introduces volatility to domestic politics, but the sheer number of elections scheduled throughout the Asia-Pacific region this year will compound the uncertainty. Unfortunately, the region's problems will not wait for politics to resolve themselves. Far more likely is that other countries will try to exploit the situations to their own advantage. In other words, 2004 promises to be a difficult and potentially explosive year.
The action starts in the spring. In March, Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian faces a difficult re-election campaign. Mr. Chen took office in 2000 because of divisions within the former ruling party; this time, the opposition has united and appears to have learned from its mistakes. The president has been doing his best to pick a fight with the mainland in the hope of profiting from a nationalist backlash among Taiwanese voters. Beijing's heavy-handed attempts to influence the 2000 election did just that for Mr. Chen. This time the Chinese government has wisely refrained from overt intervention in the campaign, which has only encouraged Mr. Chen to escalate his tactics. Three months of brinkmanship does not bode well for the region.
Shortly after that election, South Korea will hold a parliamentary vote of its own, and President Roh Moo Hyun has promised a referendum on his presidency if corruption allegations are substantiated (and the Supreme Court rules the plebiscite legal). Mr. Roh faces a parliament controlled by the opposition that, in the tradition of South Korea, practices political warfare and zero-sum politics. Divisions within Mr. Roh's own party make it unlikely that he will muster a majority after this vote. Given the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear program and concerns about the South's faltering economy, unity has rarely been more important. North Korea's penchant for meddling in South Korean politics virtually ensures elevated tension on the Korean Peninsula and beyond.