The European Union's failure last week to agree on a new constitution raises crucial questions about the future of the union. Negotiations will resume next year, but the odds of success then are not likely to be much better. Although the consequences of failure may be the best incentive for a deal, that proved to be insufficient motivation this time around. A more intriguing question is whether failure actually suits some countries: It could liberate the EU and allow like-minded governments to move ahead at their own speed. While that holds out the promise of deepening integration for the willing, it could create a "two-tier" Europe that undermines the hopes of the union's founders.
Constitutional reform was made necessary by the scheduled enlargement of the EU from 15 nations to 25 next May. Enlargement will add 75 million new citizens to the union and stretch existing decision-making mechanisms beyond their ability to cope. To remedy this situation, the EU convened a constitutional convention, headed by former French President Giscard d'Estaing, to write a new charter. The group labored for nearly two years to produce a gangly, 464-article draft. National governments began debating the constitution this fall, and final decisions were expected last week.
As expected, the key issue was voting rights. As a result of an agreement reached three years ago, Spain and Poland, medium-size countries of about 40 million people each, currently enjoy the same rights as Germany, which has 80 million people, and France, with 60 million. Perhaps more significant, France and Germany have been the drivers of European integration since the dream of union was first realized.