More than two years after the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, the fate of that country is still uncertain. There has been notable progress in installing a working government and in transitioning toward a functioning market economy. There are also ample reasons to be concerned. The central government's grip is weak and the Taliban appears to be making a comeback. The greatest danger, however, is neglect. Concern about Afghanistan has been overshadowed by developments in Iraq, threatening the international commitment to reconstruction that is the foundation of the country's future.

Afghanistan has come a long way since the Taliban was run out of Kabul by a U.S.-led, U.N.-sanctioned invasion force. The country has drafted a constitution and will hold a Loya Jirga, or meeting of tribal leaders, to debate the document next month. Key ministries have been reformed, and human rights, especially those of women, are being respected. Basic laws have been drafted that will help restore a legal framework for a civil society. In short, the foundations of a genuine democracy are emerging. Afghanistan has been reaccepted into the international community, where it is increasingly active. A most promising sign is the return of some 3 million refugees, whose decision to go home is a powerful vote of confidence.

These achievements will not last without fundamental progress in other fields. The most pressing threat is the factionalism that continues to stymie central government efforts to assert control over the country. Warlords still hold sway over significant parts of Afghanistan, where they operate with virtual impunity, committing acts of extortion, violence and terror, and preventing the consolidation of national authority that is essential to bringing lasting peace to the country. An opportunity is being lost. The number of serious human-rights violations has more than doubled in the last year as local groups feel more confident and ready to challenge the central government.