HONG KONG -- Seen from East Asia, American politics appear to be undergoing a sea-change. Mainly under the pressure of events in Iraq, President George W. Bush's re-election in 2004 has become much more uncertain, and it has become easier to see some of the Democratic Party's potential candidates becoming the president-elect in a year's time.

Only a few months ago, Bush was basking in the glow of quickly winning two brief wars in three years, with a maximum display of force and a minimum of casualties. Amid high approval ratings, he seemed a certainty for re-election. As he issued the hubristic challenge on the USS Abraham Lincoln to other potential foreign opponents "to bring 'em on," it seemed unlikely that many Iraqis would respond. The nomination of the Democratic Party for the 2004 presidential election looked increasingly like a ticket to political obscurity.

What a difference a summer makes. Far from publicly rejoicing over its liberation, as some members of the Bush administration naively expected, Iraq has become a rebellious colony in the new American Empire, as more Iraqis accepted Bush' invitation than he anticipated. There have already been more American casualties after the war than there were during it. As the occupation grows protracted, it has become increasingly obvious that the U.S. Army is in grave danger of being seriously over-extended. Blithe hopes that a speedily revived Iraqi oil industry would pay the costs of occupation have proved to be an illusion.