Low temperatures and a shortage of sunlight during the summer months have made it certain that this year's rice harvest will be the poorest in a decade. Yet, even with the lean harvest, there will be no problem on the supply side because the government's stock of rice is more than adequate.
That does not mean, though, that there will be no problems. Rumors of possible shortages are already pushing up the prices of popular brands. The rumors could well lead to outbreaks of hoarding, an unwillingness to sell, opportunistic price hikes or illegal trading practices, such as falsely labeling rice stocks with more popular brand names. Surveillance must be strengthened to prevent these activities.
The full-year crop index for wet-land rice will be finally determined in early December; the index as of Sept. 15 was announced last week. It is expected that crop conditions nationwide will be ranked "poor" to "strikingly poor." At the very least, it appears that the harvest nationwide will total no more than about 8 million tons.