Sweden has voted to reject the euro. European governments may be inclined to see the results as an expression of Swedish exceptionalism. That would be a mistake. Despite an emotionally charged campaign, the outcome reflects a careful consideration of the country's national interests. European leaders need to reflect on the message they have been sent.
Sweden's support for Europe has always been tentative. The country maintained armed neutrality during the Cold War (although it was assumed that the country would fight alongside the West in the event of a conflict). It remains outside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to this day. It only joined the European Union in 1994, and opponents of that move led opinion polls until only a few weeks before the vote. This time, too, the "nos" were favored, even though the government of Prime Minister Goran Persson and the country's business community all favored adoption of the euro.
The murder of Foreign Minister Anna Lindh the week before the vote injected a highly emotional dimension to the ballot. Ms. Lindh, killed while shopping, had campaigned in favor of the single currency. To Sweden's credit, the vote went ahead as scheduled, and the tragedy of Ms. Lindh's death did not influence the results. The final tally was 56.1 percent against membership in the single currency and 41.8 percent for. Turnout was 81.2 percent. Only the Stockholm region and Skane in the south voted for the euro.
The outcome makes perfect economic sense. Sweden's growth rate is 1.5 percent, twice that of the EU average. Its unemployment rate is lower than that of the EU as well. The government has a budget surplus, despite having one of the most generous welfare programs in the world. Swedes feared that joining the EU would force them to cut back on those social security benefits. They also know that a substantial part of the country's economic success in recent years is the result of competitive devaluations of the currency, a strategy that would be impossible once the euro was adopted.
The Swedes' economic pragmatism was matched by concerns that other EU members were not taking their obligations seriously. In particular, they blamed France and Germany for ignoring the rules for monetary union that they had created. France has not had a balanced budget for 28 years, and it is difficult for Swedes to embrace sacrifice when France's own prime minister announced that its European obligations would always be subordinate to France's self-interest.
Swedish Finance Minister Bosse Ringholm was explicit: "We have a problem here, in particular with France." Its readiness to violate the rules of the euro zone's national performance criteria, he said, "has been disturbing to the election campaign and it has been negative for the 'yes' vote."
Europe needs structural reform if it is to be competitive in the 21st century. Paris is not the only government that lacks the political will to embrace tough change. Mr. Wim Duisenberg, the outgoing president of the European Central Bank, has warned that Europe is not ready to make the hard choices that will reinvigorate EU economies.
In practical terms, the Swedish vote has dashed hopes that Britain would hold a referendum on joining the single currency before the next general election. Denmark, the other holdout among EU members, rejected the euro three years ago. The government had hoped that a Swedish decision to join the euro would provide momentum for a reconsideration, but the scale of the defeat makes that extremely unlikely.
Despite concerns about the economic impact of the euro and monetary union rules, most observers attribute the poll results to doubts in Sweden about the meaning and value of greater integration itself. Swedes worry about loss of sovereignty more than anything else.
Even Mr. Romano Prodi, head of the European Commission, conceded that the euro was merely a symbol for the European Project itself. Ms. Margot Wallstrom, the EU environment commissioner, said the result was proof of Swedish voters' "mistrust of the EU." Despite eight years in the Union, Swedes fear that their voices are not being heard. Sweden's voters are demanding more democracy within the EU. Is Brussels listening? That question will become even more urgent as the EU expands in the months and years to come.
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