Factional dissension in the Liberal Democratic Party is probably the most significant aspect of the party's presidential election set for Sept. 20. Factions critical of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi are so deeply divided that they have failed to field a single candidate. The group headed by former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, by far the largest faction, is no longer monolithic. This almost certainly means that Mr. Koizumi's chances of winning re-election have greatly increased.
LDP factions have suffered a gradual erosion of influence over the past decade. They received a major setback when a new Lower House election system of single-seat districts was introduced in 1994. Koizumi's debut in April 2001 -- which defied intraparty dynamics -- seems to have accelerated the decline of factional influence. Now the LDP has a good opportunity to overhaul the way it selects its leader. The forthcoming election, campaigning for which begins next Monday, should be an occasion to conduct a vigorous policy debate, instead of playing the factional numbers game.
An LDP leadership poll is effectively a contest to select a prime minister, since the party holds a majority in both chambers of the Diet. Past presidential races were almost always marked by a fierce factional struggle -- except in rare cases in which the outgoing president handpicked his successor or the incumbent was re-elected unopposed. A faction's raison d'etre was to put its leader in power, and its fortune depended largely on the leader's ability to raise funds and secure posts for his loyalists. That is no longer true, as shown by the turmoil in the Hashimoto faction.