Nothing quickens the blood of political analysts like leadership changes in reclusive and secretive governments. The shuffle in the upper ranks of Myanmar's governing junta is no exception. The big question is the effect the changes will have on the fate of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, the imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate, and the frozen process of reconciliation with prodemocracy forces. The likely answer: not much.
In the most recent moves, Gen. Than Shwe was replaced as Myanmar's prime minister by Mr. Khin Nyunt, who was serving as "secretary one" of the State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC, and head of the intelligence service. Mr. Than Shwe retains the chairmanship of the SPDC and his post as commander in chief of the armed forces. Lt. Gen. Soe Win, a protege of Mr. Than Shwe, has been promoted from "secretary three" to replace Mr. Khin Nyunt. Five other generals resigned from the Cabinet.
In fact, the shuffle appears to be a demotion for the new prime minister. The post is primarily ceremonial anyway, as real power resides with the SPDC and the military. It is unclear if Mr. Khin Nyunt remains head of the intelligence service; if he has been replaced there, too, his fall from power could be considered virtually complete.