LONDON -- There is no question that the anachronistic communist regime in North Korea threatens the peace in Northeast Asia. In the absence of good intelligence, however, it is difficult to estimate the extent of the threat. American intelligence on Iraq was faulty, and it is doubtful whether the CIA has reliable evidence about North Korea. Apart from signal intelligence and what can be obtained from defectors, satellite photography provides most of the agency's intelligence. However, it must be assumed that North Korea has worked hard to hide its weapons of mass destruction in underground chambers or in caves.

Nevertheless, information coming from diplomats and others who have lived in Pyongyang for a significant amount of time suggests that North Korea's military might may be exaggerated. Of the million men claimed to be under arms, it seems likely that a large proportion, perhaps nine of 10 men, have had little more than militia training and are generally employed much of the time in agriculture.

Observers report that North Korea's infrastructure has deteriorated in recent years. Railway lines are limited, slow and inadequately maintained. Road surfaces are full of potholes and broken concrete. As a result, journeys by rail or road take much longer than they once did. North Korean heavy industry no longer operates and many factories have been shut down. Tractors hardly exist or are in very short supply, while trucks, even in Pyongyang, are mostly old.