PARIS -- Two months ago, the European Union seemed bound to be one of the major casualties of the trans-Atlantic rift generated by the Iraqi war. Now, however, the climate is improving.

Two main reasons seem to explain why. First, the situation the Americans and their British partners are facing in Iraq, and in the Middle East in general, is more difficult than they anticipated. Second, the majority of Europeans back the trans-Atlantic alliance with the U.S., but they will not accept the de facto protectorate Washington is dreaming of. They believe the best way to avoid such a situation is to strengthen the EU.

Before the start of the Iraq war, one French expert in international relations, Dominique Moisi, said the United States would easily win the war, but doubted that it would win the peace. Apparently he was right.