NEW DELHI -- Aggression pays, and naked aggression pays handsomely. That may sound like the moral of America's occupation of Iraq after a faster-than-anticipated military triumph that threatens to herald a more muscular U.S. foreign policy. That moral may be reinforced by the way the Bush administration has sought to rapidly turn Iraq into a profit hub for U.S. construction, energy and other firms.
As Washington wallows in the victory, the longer-term costs of the triumph are not on the minds of the neoconservatives who shaped the White House strategy against Iraq and whose influence in policy is such now that President George W. Bush speaks their language. This triumph in an asymmetrical fight against a nation with no air power and no defenses against constant bombardment from above could end up proving very costly to the United States.
For one, the military triumph remains incomplete, with many top Iraqi political and military leader still at large. Few can miss the parallel with Afghanistan, where the war still rages more than 16 months after the Taliban leaders disappeared without a trace. The fact that southernmost Iraqi towns held out in the first 10 days of the war while Baghdad and other cities fell without a fight suggests that the Americans may have reached a deal with Iraqi military commanders after their initial setbacks. The Taliban regime, for example, was toppled by the CIA's cash, which bought over key Afghan warlords.