HONOLULU -- The rapid spread of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, is a compelling demonstration of the need for a truly global health network to fight future epidemics. The particulars of this outbreak also highlight the role that the Asia-Pacific region will have to play in this effort. The region's population density, its income and development disparities, and its economic dynamism create an environment that breeds and facilitates the spread of these diseases. The problem has existed for some time; SARS has underscored the need for a more creative response to such outbreaks. One avenue, relatively unexplored, is the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, or APEC. SARS is an opportunity to invigorate this sometimes moribund institution.
Although the virus has a fatality rate of about 4 percent -- about the same as the flu -- the economic toll is mounting in parallel with the human one.
SARS is the most serious incident to hit Southeast Asia since the 1997 financial crisis. It has had a far worse impact than the Iraq war. Morgan Stanley has cut its forecast for growth in Asia, excluding Japan, from 5 percent to 4.6 percent, and this could prove optimistic if the disease continues to spread. The figures for individual countries are pretty striking: Growth is expected to decline from 2.9 to 2.1 percent in Singapore, from 4.1 to 3 percent in Malaysia, from 4 to 3.5 percent in Thailand, from 3.2 to 3 percent in Indonesia and from 3.4 to 3.1 percent in the Philippines. Several countries will be pushed into recession due to SARS.
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