The publicity given to the quarreling between members of the Japanese Cabinet, including accusations of lying, the resignation of the minister of agriculture and the difficulty Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi apparently had in finding a suitable successor suggest that his government cannot last much longer.

The knives are out for him in the Liberal Democratic Party, with many of the factions openly hostile. Koizumi's popularity has fallen, with public opinion divided on his declared support for the Americans and the British in the Iraq war. His reform program seems to have been more rhetoric than substance. Political reform, including effective rules to limit money politics, end factionalism and rebalance the electoral system to equalize the value of urban and rural votes, looks just as remote as it has ever been. It would, however, be a mistake to write off Koizumi, and any putative successor could be much worse for Japan.

In addition to the right to decide on the date of a general election, Koizumi still has a number of advantages. The opposition parties remain disunited and feeble, and have limited support among voters. Within the LDP there are a number of politicians ambitious to take Koizumi's job, but none of them have charisma or policies with any real appeal to the electorate as a whole.