Washington's plans to attack Iraq have been dealt a blow by the Turkish Parliament's refusal to allow U.S. soldiers to deploy in Turkey. The vote surprised both Ankara and Washington, and has officials in both capitals scrambling to arrange another vote. The outcome is the result of confusion in Ankara, but the United States must share the blame. Washington is paying the price for its neglect of a key ally.

Turkey will play a key role if and when the invasion of Iraq begins. During the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the U.S. based aircraft and soldiers in Turkey. This time, military planners envisioned a two-pronged thrust from the north and the south. Some 62,000 U.S. troops, along with armor, would move in from bases in Turkey to seize as much territory as possible while strike fighters and helicopters attacked key Iraqi targets. The first objective would be the oil fields in the north, then the forces would move south to more important population centers.

The vote will not affect overall U.S. troop strength because Kuwait has offered to host the troops originally intended for deployment in Turkey. But the absence of a northern flank could have a significant impact on the outcome of the war, as Iraq will be able to concentrate its forces in the south. U.S. planners had also hoped that a rapid conquest of territory in the north would prevent Turks and Iraqi Kurds from fighting for control of the area.