Peace in the Middle East depends on two things: settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict and modernization of the Arab regimes in the region. Attention has usually focused on the first item, as the consequences of failure have long been plainly visible. But in recent months -- especially since Sept. 11, 2001 -- more and more emphasis is being put on the second. Indeed, it has become apparent that the two are inextricably linked. As Arab societies have been unable to accommodate rising demands for political participation, Israel has become a distraction and a convenient scapegoat for many of those countries' failures.

For much of the postwar era, the West has accepted regimes in the Middle East that can only be called feudal as a means of safeguarding access to the region's vast supplies of oil. The willingness to turn a blind eye to repressive governments has locked the West into a perilous spiral. The Arab "street" sees Western nations as supporting antidemocratic regimes. The masses' rhetoric then takes on an anti-Western component, which gives Western governments even more reason to support the existing order. Anti-Western sentiment intensifies and Arab governments have yet more reasons to crack down on dissent since protests criticize both domestic and foreign policy.

Any would-be reformers are tempered by the Iranian experience. Then, U.S. support for democratic change resulted in the overthrow of a U.S. ally, the rise of a government whose raison d'etre is implacable hostility to the U.S. and the reshaping of the strategic landscape of the entire region.