HONOLULU — Japan continues to be the odd man out in Northeast Asia. While the other states in the region have been forging ties and building networks with each other — even North Korea — Japan has lagged behind. Tokyo could be marginalized in its own neighborhood. That risk has motivated Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro's two foreign policy gambles of the last six months — his trips to Pyongyang and Russia. Koizumi rightfully is trying to break Japan out of its regional isolation and position the country to play a role in the future.

Northeast Asia's geopolitical landscape began to shift in the early 1990s, when South Korea started building relations with its two communist neighbors. Seoul reached out to Beijing and Moscow as part of a broad strategy to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula by ending Pyongyang's isolation. In theory, the establishment of relations between Seoul and its former Cold War adversaries would be matched by similar moves by Pyongyang and its enemies, the United States and Japan. At the same time, the links between Seoul and China and Russia would be used to nudge Pyongyang toward reconciliation with the South. The two Koreas' joining the United Nations was part of this effort.

As a result, North-South relations have improved, although Pyongyang is a frustrating and unpredictable diplomatic partner. It took a nuclear crisis to get the U.S. and North Korea to reach a diplomatic "modus vivendi," and relations had improved before deteriorated. South Korea's ties with China continue to expand, and their economic relationship is one of the most robust in Northeast Asia. Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has reinvigorated its ties with Pyongyang, as well as with Beijing and Seoul.