LONDON -- "It could have been worse!" say the pundits. There was no repeat of Sept. 11, and there has not been a major conflict. Nor has there been a world-shaking financial crisis. But 2002 was not a good year for many people, and 2003 may not be any better. The balance sheet is not easy to calculate, but probably the world overall is not in much worse a position than it was this time last year.

In the fight against terrorism, there have been some successes but also some serious setbacks. The Taliban were ousted from Afghanistan and the pacification of the country began, but it is going to be very difficult to complete. Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his henchmen apparently escaped, and if the intelligence services know where, they are not letting on. Murders in Bali, Moscow, Mombassa, Israel and Palestine reminded the world that terrorism is not one dimensional.

The unanimous approval by the U.N. Security Council of the resolution on Iraq was a gain for multilateralism, but the growing pressure on Iraq, including the buildup of U.S. forces in the region, may well not ensure a peaceful outcome. Dictators such as Iraqi President Saddam Hussein will sacrifice their people's lives and prosperity to survive.