With the U.S. midterm election less than a month away, the campaign season is beginning in earnest. This year's ballot is an especially important one: With the U.S. electorate virtually split in two, the outcome of a few key races could determine the shape of U.S. politics for a long time to come. It is ironic, then, that the key issue politicians are focusing on -- the possible war against Iraq -- does not top the list of voter concerns. That disconnect is a critical element of next month's vote and could determine its outcome: Republicans will try at every opportunity to turn the ballot into a referendum on national security issues and the president's performance as commander in chief. The Democrats will resist that effort and try to focus voters' attention on the economy. Events may well overtake any concerted attempt to shape the political agenda.

American voters, like citizens everywhere, are concerned about the prospect of war with Iraq. Recent polls show that at least two-thirds of them feel that Saddam Hussein is "an imminent threat to U.S. interests." At the same time, however, they do not agree that "regime change" in Baghdad is the most important priority in the war against terror. Nor does it top their list of concerns as they contemplate the next election. Instead, as is usually the case, economic issues come first.

Republican strategists prefer to put national security issues above all others. An incumbent president always commands more respect and influence -- and has longer coattails -- when viewed as commander in chief rather than as just another politician. President George W. Bush's approval ratings are still stratospheric, especially when voters are asked about his role as defense chief. He becomes considerably more vulnerable when the questions focus on domestic policy.