The fact that responsible individuals and governments are talking about the casualties that would be created by a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan is a powerful indication of how close the prospect of war between the two countries truly is. Both the Indian and Pakistani governments deny that there is any likelihood that their conflict will escalate to that point, but these assurances ring hollow. The two countries have already fought three wars and skirmish virtually all the time. More worrying still is the prospect of radicals in both countries exploiting the tension and confusion to trigger war by miscalculation.

There has been concern that a confrontation between Delhi and Islamabad could go nuclear since 1998, when the two countries engaged in tit-for-tat nuclear tests. It is estimated that the two countries have developed arsenals that hold dozens of weapons -- the upper range is almost 100 in India's case and about half that for Pakistan. Both governments pooh-pooh the critics, maintaining that the nuclear threshold will not be breached. They note that nuclear weapons were never used during the four decades of the Cold War, despite several "hot" conflicts. They also argue that any claim that South Asian governments are any less rational or careful with their nuclear arsenals smacks of racism or nuclear apartheid. Only last week, Pakistan's President Gen. Pervez Musharraf reiterated the standard line, noting that "one shouldn't even be discussing these things, because any sane individual cannot even think of going into this unconventional war, whatever the pressures."

Unfortunately, both governments have also made it clear that their national security strategies include the use of those arsenals. India has promised never to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict; it does not have to, since its conventional forces are superior to those of its rival. Predictably, Pakistan has made no such pledge and has stated that it would use whatever it has in its arsenal if "the nation's survival" were at stake. India thinks it knows where that line is drawn and has given quiet assurances it will not cross it. At the same time, however, nationalists in India have reportedly made suggestive comments that hint at pushing Pakistan to the brink.