Half a year after the creation of the Office of Homeland Security, how well is the Bush administration doing in its efforts to improve protection of the United States against terrorist attacks? No major attacks have occurred since Sept. 11, giving a first impression that the effort is going well. But al-Qaeda has historically spaced its major terrorist actions by one to two years, and may need more time in this case given the military action in Afghanistan, so the absence of major attacks in the last seven months has only limited significance. In fact, while the administration has made impressive progress to date, it has not yet developed general plans, much less requested budget proposals and implemented programs, for a range of other threats. As a result, the country is still rather vulnerable.

To be sure, a large, free, and open country cannot make itself invulnerable to terrorism. An effective homeland security strategy, however, can make the most deadly and costly types of terrorist attack less likely to succeed. Measured against these metrics, the goal of providing good homeland security is far from hopeless, but efforts to date are far from sufficient.

The Bush administration's budget plan for fiscal year 2003, proposed in February 2002, includes $38 billion in proposed homeland security spending, roughly twice the level of the pre-9/11 world. The proposed budget would build on accomplishments to date and make the country more secure. Its major emphases would be placed on airline and airport security, preparations against biological attack, better monitoring and regulation of traffic across the country's borders, using information technology more effectively, and dealing with the consequences of any attacks that occur despite our best efforts to prevent them.