How ephemeral a politician's popularity is. When he made his debut just a year ago, on April 26, 2001, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was basking in an unprecedented degree of public support. Now his ratings have hit a record low. What are we to make of this?

Simply put, the answer is that his performance has fallen far short of public expectations. By any objective standard it is difficult to give him a passing score. First, the economy is stuck in deflation, though it is showing some signs of picking up. Unemployment remains high as companies continue to restructure the hard way. The prime minister's reform plans have produced few tangible results. Political reform is also stalled, as he meets stiff resistance from his own party, the Liberal Democratic Party.

Indeed, there are few things that have visibly improved since Mr. Koizumi came into office. It is too early to write him off, however. After all, reform takes time and patience. But it may not be an overstatement to say that he fell victim to his own powers of eloquence as he talked up his dreams.