The venerable science of Kremlinology is flourishing in Myanmar. The country's ruling elite is a clubby and secretive group, and the exercise of power and influence is shrouded in mystery; reliable information is hard to come by. No wonder then that the last few weeks have been busy ones for Myanmar watchers. Rumors of a failed coup planned by relatives of former strongman Gen. Ne Win have provided fodder for intense speculation about a shift in politics. It is too early to know, but there is speculation that the ground is being prepared for talks with the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi.
Gen. Ne Win seized power in Myanmar, then known as Burma, in 1962, and ruled the country for 26 years. The capricious general forced a twisted brand of socialism on the country, which entrenched him, his family and their cronies in power -- and enriched them. It also virtually bankrupted one of Asia's richest countries. He stepped down in 1988, but has long been suspected of wielding considerable influence behind the scenes.
Prodemocracy protests forced the general from office. The army crushed the dissent, but only after thousands of protesters were killed. Then, confident that it enjoyed popular support, the military, still running the government, agreed to hold elections in 1990. To its surprise, the winner was the National League for Democracy (NLD), run by Ms. Suu Kyi. The ruling junta refused to hand over power, claiming that only the military's strong hand could hold the country together. Ms. Suu Kyi and many other NLD leaders and members were imprisoned or exiled.