According to the financial mandarins of the Group of Seven, the global economy has turned the corner. Despite recession in Japan and the United States, the world's leading economies, and the shock created by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the international outlook has improved. The statement released at the end of last weekend's get-together in Canada called for vigilance and "appropriate" policies to nurture the tentative recovery. Even taking into account the cautious language of such communiques, this statement is remarkable for what it does not mention.
We might be able to blame expectations for the relatively rosy tone. Coming after the longest economic expansion of the postwar era, the U.S. recession should have been more jarring. The second half of the business cycle should have exacted a more severe toll, exacerbated by the terror attacks of Sept. 11 and the Enron debacle. The Argentine debt default, the largest sovereign default in history, could have jolted the international financial system.
Instead, economic indicators suggest that the U.S. may already be emerging from the recession; U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Paul O'Neill predicted that his country would register growth 3 to 3.5 percent growth by the fourth quarter of 2002. European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said he expected growth in the euro zone of between 2 and 2.5 percent by yearend. Argentina is one for the history books, but the default was signaled well in advance; the slow-motion implosion gave financial markets plenty of time to prepare.