The international agreement on climate change, better known as the Kyoto Protocol, is expected to take effect later this year, perhaps in September. But the United States, the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is conspicuously absent from the ratification process. The U.S. boycott is certainly a serious problem, but the very fact that the protocol has managed to survive is proof that the international effort to control the rise of global temperatures is more or less on course.
The Kyoto agreement, signed in 1997, has been dogged by nuts-and-bolts issues involving operating rules. Now that ratification is assured by major signatories, the real job of implementing the agreement is about to begin. Under the agreement, Japan is committed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 6 percent of the 1990 level in the five years from 2008 to 2012. This does not mean that it won't have to do anything until the end of 2007. To meet its commitment Japan must take preliminary steps in the next six years.
Emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases in Japan continued to increase in the 1990s even though the economy remained stagnant. The level in fiscal 1999 was up 6.8 percent from 1990. Output of carbon dioxide, which accounts for the bulk of the emissions, expanded 9 percent. By contrast, European emission levels remained almost unchanged, while the region posted higher rates of economic growth than Japan.