The Korean Peninsula remains a potential flash point. The question for 2002 is whether North and South Korea, still technically at war, will be able to promote stability in the region. The answer partly depends on how domestic politics develops in South Korea, which will hold local elections in June and a presidential poll in December.
Of particular concern is who will succeed outgoing President Kim Dae Jung, head of the New Millennium Democratic Party. The ruling party, now undergoing generational change in its top ranks, could have difficulty picking its presidential candidate. The opposition Grand National Party, which is aiming to regain the power it lost in December 1997, is stepping up criticism of the Kim administration.
President Kim's record so far is mixed. Diplomatically, his greatest achievement is the inter-Korean summit meeting, held in Pyongyang in June 2000. Domestically, however, he has failed to forge a solid sense of national harmony. In hindsight, South Koreans had probably expected too much from the former prodemocracy activist when he made a dramatic political comeback in February 1998.