Two historic transitions are beginning in China: the rise to power of its fourth generation of leaders and the economic transformation leading to membership in the World Trade Organization. They are pulling the country in different directions and creating conflicting priorities for the Beijing government. China is entering a period of great uncertainty, and tensions with neighbors and trade partners are likely to result.
Over the next two years, China's top leadership will change. President Jiang Zemin, Premier Zhu Rongji and National People's Congress Standing Committee Chairman Li Peng will retire, as will other lesser-known senior figures. While Mr. Jiang has reportedly hinted at his desire to maintain influence behind the scenes -- among other things, he and several of his colleagues want to prevent any reassessment of the Tiananmen incident -- the public face of the Chinese leadership will be transformed.
Ensuring a smooth and stable transition is the top priority of both the current leadership and its successors. That will prove to be more of a challenge than ever before. The third generation, that of Mr. Jiang, Mr. Zhu and Mr. Li, is the last that can claim any direct links to the cadre that led the Chinese Communist Party to power in 1949. The new generation is less charismatic than its predecessors; it is one of technocrats, whose chief skills have been party administration and economic expertise. As a result, their authority and legitimacy may be more circumscribed than that of their predecessors.