WASHINGTON -- It is time to begin facing up to reality on the Korean Peninsula: North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is neither a serious reformer nor a likely visitor to Seoul this year. Despite a valiant effort by South Korean President Kim Dae Jung, North Korea is trapped in its own system with the pace of change a bit like watching a glacier melt.

Fourteen months after the June 2000 North-South Summit, it is difficult to think of a better image for the stagnation of serious diplomacy vis-a-vis North Korea than that of the Dear Leader on a slow train home from Moscow. Never mind that Kim Jong Il was dining on lobster while begging the world to feed his citizens. Unfortunately, it seems that the absence of concrete steps toward reform and opening, like Dear Leader's refusal to honor his pledge to come to Seoul, puts Pyongyang on a slow train to nowhere.

Kim Jong Il's visit to Russia was another good example of how Pyongyang continues to look for the easy way out. Kim Jong Il sought to use Russia as a source of new weaponry for his military, to wring what economic benefits he could out of Moscow, and not least to put diplomatic pressure on the United States. What is Dear Leader up to? Kim's diplomacy reflects a complex agenda. By reaffirming the moratorium on missile tests and visiting the Russian space launch center, he, in effect, invited Washington to resume negotiations -- but on his terms. By demanding U.S. troops leave South Korea, he signaled his desire to remove the issue of conventional forces from the agenda with the U.S., even if at the price of contradicting what he told Kim Dae Jung. Being a dictator means never having to say you're sorry.