A deal has been struck to end the six-month insurgency in the tiny, impoverished country of Macedonia. Now everything depends on whether a genuine peace can be established. Serb and ethnic Albanian leaders signed an agreement, which embodies the essence of the demands of the guerrilla Albanian forces. NATO and the European Union carefully nurtured the peace process and applied pressure to prevent the conflict initiated by the Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA) from exploding into a full-scale Balkan war.
This seems to have been accomplished for the moment, although the ceasefire has been violated repeatedly in the days following the signing of the agreement in Skopje, the Macedonian capital, early last week. These incidents, however, were neither unexpected nor large in scale. The conflict appeared to be sputtering to an end. In fact, everything now hinges on maintaining the ceasefire until the critical stage of disarming the NLA can begin.
A British-led force of 3,500 NATO troops is ready to begin the difficult and risky task of collecting weapons from the insurgents under the agreement. NATO aptly calls this duty "Operation Essential Harvest" because peace can come only through its success.
But NATO will not deploy this force until the ceasefire is observed. Once begun, the rebels will have 45 days to turn in their weapons at collection points, where they will be collected by NATO soldiers. No one is naive enough to believe all the weapons will be given up. But this is less important than the NLA's commitment to do so.
After the signing there was a moment of suspense while waiting for the response of NLA leaders. But rebel leaders, including a senior NLA leader known only by the name of Shpati, announced that the rebel forces would accept the agreement. So far, so good. But the real test will come when NATO judges the ceasefire firm enough to deploy its troops.
Earlier in the negotiations, Macedonian Serb leaders had insisted that disarmament come before implementation of the accord. But the Western European nations and the United States insisted that these two processes work in tandem.
The peace agreement was signed by Macedonian President Boris Trajkovski and the leaders of the country's four major political parties -- two of which are Macedonian and two of which are ethnic Albanian. Politically and administratively, the agreement gives Macedonia's ethnic Albanians, who make up about one-third of the country's two million people, a better deal.
Under the terms, local governments will be given greater authority, which means that areas where the Albanian population is in the majority will have a greater measure of self-rule. The agreement guarantees proportional representation in the Constitutional Court, which has the final word on legislation. At the same time, the Albanian language will be given official status and amnesty will be extended to NLA fighters. Another very important concession by the majority Serbs will allow the Albanians to increase their participation in the police force from 5 percent to 25 percent. This will give them a better sense of security and the country fairer law enforcement.
Many Albanians harbor suspicions that the agreement will not be implemented to their satisfaction. And in truth, there are hardliners in the coalition government who oppose further empowerment of the Albanian minority. But even they know that any backtracking on the deal will encourage extremist Albanians to take up arms once again.
The negotiators did not rush to reach a settlement. Instead, they took adequate time to forge an agreement acceptable to both ethnic groups. U.S. diplomat James Pardew, who helped mediate the negotiations, said the agreement should settle once and for all the political issues that were at the heart of the conflict. This is true if the ratification and implementation process proceeds without any serious hitches.
It would be unrealistic to believe that the agreement signed in Skopje will quickly lead to reconciliation between Macedonia's two major ethnic groups. Mutual suspicions and hostility will not vanish overnight. But the balanced power-sharing plan stipulated in the agreement should help to ease tensions and build trust.
The active participation of NATO and the need for Macedonia to find its place in greater Europe are facilitating progress on the road toward peace. Over the past decade, ethnic wars in countries that formerly were part of Yugoslavia have cost 200,000 lives. Macedonia now has a chance to avoid further bloodshed and destruction.
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