The July 29 Upper House election is effectively a national referendum on the "reform without sacred cows" program of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's administration. The central question is whether "Koizumi reform" will jump-start Japan's stalled economy and put it back on the long-term recovery course.
The election poses other crucial questions. Will Koizumi's huge popularity ratings of over 80 percent translate into large gains for the tripartite ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party, New Komeito and the New Conservative Party? Will the old guard in the LDP, now taking a low profile, take the offensive against Koizumi's reform plans after the poll? Not least, will his bold push for reform trigger a new round of party realignments?
The Upper House election is a prelude to the next all-important Lower House election. As such, it will provide major clues to the shape of things to come in the years ahead.