Speculation swirls around the defense-policy review being conducted by the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush. Surprising results are anticipated, not only because timorous guesses rarely command media attention, but also because the administration has shown no reluctance to challenge fundamental parts of American policy. So far, however, rhetoric seems to be outpacing reality. The United States is reassessing defense policy from the bottom up, but the signs of continuity seem to outweigh the changes. More importantly, the Bush administration is giving allies a chance to consult and influence the future of alliance defense. They should seize the opportunity.
Mr. Bush took office promising radical shifts in the U.S. approach to national defense. During the campaign, he expressed skepticism about multilateral force deployments under the U.N. flag and hinted at a withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Balkans. The revolution in military affairs was alleged to provide the foundation for a rethink of the U.S. forward presence throughout the world. The attention given to "new threats" to the U.S., such as the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction, only added to allies' concerns.
Once confirmed, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld set up several panels to review U.S. policy. Allied governments have held their breath ever since, looking for clues to U.S. thinking in every statement and leak from Washington. At this point, facts are still scarce, but some conclusions seem inescapable.