Japan's gross domestic product in the first quarter of the year dropped 0.2 percent from the previous quarter, or 0.8 percent at the annualized rate, according to figures released Monday by the Cabinet Office. Economic indicators since April also show the economy is decelerating. Mr. Heizo Takenaka, the minister of economic and fiscal affairs, has all but acknowledged that the economy is in recession.
With prices also declining, concerns about a deflationary spiral will intensify. But don't expect any traditional stimulus package from Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's administration, which says there can be "no economic recovery without structural reform." It disapproves of old-fashioned pump-priming measures, such as increased public-works spending.
This is "a time of patience," as one Cabinet official puts it. The message is that negative growth is part of the price for the painful changes that must be made. The question is whether patience will prevail. The answer depends on whether Mr. Koizumi and his team can resist pressures from election-conscious political parties and the recession-wary business community. Basically, everything hinges on the administration's ability to assure the nation that prosperity will follow hardship.