Stop blowing up the balloons. Put away the ribbons and confetti. There is unlikely to be any major celebrations as we mark the first anniversary of the historic June 13-15, 2000 summit meeting in Pyongyang between South Korean President Kim Dae Jung and North Korean chairman Kim Jong Il.

In the past 12 months, relations between North and South Korea have been like a roller-coaster ride, first climbing to new heights and then experiencing a series of wild twists and turns and ups and downs. The security environment on the Korean Peninsula has gone from a seemingly hopeless stalemate to one with the best real promise of peace and stability since the end of the Korean War to its current state of near suspended animation -- the current condition caused by the suspension by Pyongyang of North-South high-level dialogue and the failure of Kim Jong Il to make his promised reciprocal visit to Seoul.

Some Koreans (North and South) have tried to pin the blame for the current lull on the Bush administration's emerging "hardline" policy toward North Korea. Kim Jong Il is even reported to have used the failure of Washington to complete its Korea policy review as an excuse for not setting a date for his long overdue visit to the South. That excuse disappeared with Washington's recent announcement that, after an excruciatingly (and I would add inexcusably) slow review process, it was now ready to engage Pyongyang in direct dialogue. But even before this announcement, nothing the Bush administration had said or done since coming to power had indicated any lack of support for the North-South peace process or provided a credible excuse for the current lull in North-South dialogue.