WASHINGTON -- Key officials in the Bush administration, especially Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, have long been on record as urging Japan to play a more substantial role in East Asia's security affairs. Some of them even want Japanese leaders to repeal, or at least modify, Article 9 of the country's Constitution, which renounces war and prevents Japan from taking military action except to repel a direct attack on its own territory. The underlying assumption of those American policymakers is that a Japan free of Article 9's restrictions would be a much more useful and reliable U.S. military ally.

With the rise of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, part of Washington's wish may come true. In his first public statement, Koizumi emphasized the need to change Article 9 and to admit that Japan had a fully functioning military dedicated to the defense of its security. Since then, the prime minister has given other indications that Japan intends to be much more assertive in defending its interests in East Asia and beyond.

But Armitage and other officials who assume that a more active Japan will be an obedient junior partner of the United States are in for an unpleasant surprise. Tokyo shows signs of not only being more active on the security front, but also of being more independent of the U.S. Nowhere is that trend more evident than with respect to policy toward China.