Interest in "Asian energy security" is growing, suggesting the possibility of a divergence from the quest for national control of resources that inspired energy security policies in the past. Will Asian energy security take hold as an organizing concept that addresses Asian energy needs and contributes to global energy security, or will it stimulate misguided efforts to insulate Asian economies from global forces and attempts to secure unilateral access to energy resources?
Globalization of markets has deepened in the energy field in recent years, particularly in the 1990s. The driving forces are: more open access to resources after the end of the Cold War; technological change that has expanded global supplies of energy; and disenchantment with strong, state-led energy planning. In this context of globalized energy markets, Asia's future of burgeoning energy requirements gives it a distinctive global role. The region's oil imports from the Middle East will increase rapidly, due to rising demand in large developing countries like China and India and constraints on energy production. By 2010, Asian could be importing as much as 19 million barrels of oil a day from the Middle East, and China's oil-import dependence could rise to more than 60 percent. Many observers worry about new conflicts or even resource wars among countries in the region as they strive to obtain adequate supplies of energy.
Unequal energy resources are at the heart of geopolitics. Some proponents of a regional approach to energy security seek to boost the bargaining power of Asian countries vis-a-vis the Middle East oil suppliers. Fear of being cut off from resources was the force that drove Japanese aggression in World War II. The oil shocks of the 1970s led Japan to promote "energy security," defined in terms of increased national control of oil imports and domestic nuclear-technology development, regardless of costs. Asian energy security will not be so different from the "resource diplomacy" of the 1970s if it is pursued in terms of exclusive bilateral arrangements with oil suppliers.