U.S. President George W. Bush's plans for antimissile-defense highlight the threat posed by rogue nations. Many security experts warn that the real national defense issue is not ballistic missiles, but the warheads they carry. Nuclear proliferation is the danger. According to a new study, that threat is more real than we can imagine.

The study, commissioned by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, concludes that there is a "dangerously high" chance that nuclear specialists living in Russia would migrate to other countries because of their inadequate living standards. That is no surprise. Life in the eight Russian cities surveyed, five of which specialize in nuclear weaponry and three in missile development, is grim. More than 62 percent of employees earn less than $50 a month, 58 percent are forced to take second jobs, 89 percent said living conditions have declined since 1992 and 14 percent want to work outside Russia.

These individuals are highly skilled and educated and badly paid; the combination makes for low morale. "This state of affairs objectively has to push people in the direction of accepting offers of work, regardless of the source," including would-be proliferators, the report said. By one estimate, as many as 50,000 of Russia's 130,000 weapons specialists in nuclear cities will be looking for work soon. Twenty-one percent are ready to work in the military complex of another country, and 6 percent will work for anyone, anywhere. In real terms, that means there are nearly 4,000 people with the skills needed to design, build and launch nuclear warheads ready to test the market. Some have already left; there have been reports of Russian technicians being intercepted in transit to their new homes.