LONDON -- Is Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi so different from other Japanese politicians that he can succeed in enforcing radical change in the political and economic system of the country?

An April 26 London Times article by respected journalist Anatole Kaletsky had the headline, "At last, the man who can turn Japan around." Kaletsky sees Koizumi's appointment as "part of a consensus in favor of a 'comprehensive package' of economic reforms that was clearly spreading through Japan's civil service, political system and industrial establishment when I visited Tokyo earlier this year." Koizumi's victory suggested "that the sense of crisis has finally reached even the country's most deeply conservative institution, the faction system of the LDP."

I hope that Kaletsky is right, but I remain skeptical. Koizumi's tasks are enormous and fraught with difficulties. To solve them, he needs to demonstrate that he has courage, determination, common sense and good judgment well beyond the average in Japanese politics. His reputation so far as a maverick or "henjin" (which might be translated kindly to mean "eccentric") raises doubts about the extent to which he has the necessary qualities. However it is worth remembering that you can never be sure what a man is capable of until you try him out.