The rapid aging of Japan's population, combined with a steady decline in the birthrate, makes it certain that the productive-age population will begin to fall sharply in the not-so-distant future. As a result, the entire population will also start shrinking, making it necessary to redesign the economic and social systems that assume continuous population growth. A diminishing population risks reducing the nation's growth potential and, consequently, the well-being of the people.
The question at stake is how to revamp those social and economic systems in ways that meet the challenges of a shrinking population. This must be a political priority in the early part of this century. For a start, the government should create a policymaking framework that cuts across the political spectrum. Local governments and communities throughout the country, as well as individual citizens, must also consider how best to adapt our society to the new demographic trends.
The available statistics paint a grim picture. Preliminary figures from the 1999 national census put the total population for that year at 126.92 million, 1.35 million more people than in 1995 when the last survey was taken. However, the rate of growth for the five years -- 1.1 percent -- was the lowest since the end of World War II. The number of babies born in 2000 increased only slightly, by 11,000, to 1.189 million, the fourth lowest year-on-year rise, according to the Health, Labor and Welfare Minister. The average number of children a woman bears dropped to an all-time low of 1.34 in 1999, far below the 2.08 that is considered essential to maintain current population levels.