At the start of a new century, the world situation remains in flux. The much-heralded "new world order" has yet to arrive. The United States, of course, holds the key. Developments in the next few years -- not only in the field of economics, but also in politics and security -- will depend largely on how the administration of President-elect George W. Bush will move in pursuing its domestic and foreign policies.

The biggest concern at the moment is how the slowing U.S. economy will develop in coming months. America's longest economic boom began losing steam in late 2000 following a crash in Internet-related stocks. U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter of last year, down sharply from the 4-5 percent of the previous four years. In December alone, online businesses laid off more than 10,000 workers, bringing to over 40,000 the total number of jobs they had shed during the year.

The U.S. slowdown is casting a shadow over East Asian economies that have only just begun to recover from the economic crisis of 1997-98. They all depend on the U.S. market for exports. In strife-torn Indonesia in particular, economic hardship will further destabilize the political situation. Should the U.S. economy make a "crash landing," East Asia and other regions would be hit hard, with dire consequences for global growth.